An Inside Look at the Future

Even the most casual, untrained observer cannot fail to have noticed the rapid acceleration in growth in Phoenix and its environs during the past few years. Prior to World War II, the city nestled snugly on the valley floor in placid contentment. The pace quickened gradually with the advent of airbases and training fields, pulsed a little more strongly following the war's end when servicemen stationed here in the early forties brought their families back and settled, then took hold and really began its dizzying ascent in the fifties and sixties. If it were possible to use a sphygmomanometer on a metropolis, the reading would have been dangerously high.

So, like the patient with high blood pressure, the realization came that something had to be done - and soon - to alleviate the condition, and bar its recurrence in the future.

PREDICTION: By the year 2000, “Metropolitan Arizona” will have a population of 3.8 million and be the fifth largest megalopolis in the nation. The immediate Phoenix area will contain 2.5 million people.

So sayeth local and national economists, urban planners and population prognosticators. The figures may vary a hundred thousand or so and “Metropolitan Arizona” may be Phoenix-to-Tucson, Flagstaff-to-Tucson or Phoenix-to-Nogales, depending on the speaker and the validity of his study. Predictions are a chancy business at best, subject to individual interpretation of the data on hand, but variances notwithstanding, the fact is that Maricopa County - the Phoenix Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) - is due for even more phenomenal growth in the upcoming final third of this century.

The Phoenix SMSA rose to 34th in population rank and the city of Phoenix is now in 20th position, according to preliminary 1970 census reports. Even before the official count was published, though, local analysts were aware of the situation and began to take steps toward control and planned, orderly expansion. The City of Phoenix Planning Department published “The Comprehensive Plan - 1990,” a remarkably lucid document suggesting the strategy for development in the next twenty years. All other levels of government, federal, state and county, had also begun thinking along similar lines. Hopefully, their efforts will be cohesive; duplication of studies would be wasteful both in time and economically.

Demographic elements of our population are undergoing gradual changes, which in turn have a definite effect on growth projections in nearly all fields: housing, schools, employment, shopping centers, streets and highways, medical care, cultural and recreational facilities. Median household income rises every year, but so does the number of working wives. At present, slightly over twenty per cent of our metropolitan area households have a wife employed outside the home. Another fifteen per cent of our households have a female head. This large segment has a different life style which must be taken into consideration include proposed new towns or areas of possible annexation to incorporated cities, the council can determine amount of bonding reasonable and necessary for financing of public works and facilities, approve civil engineers' and real estate appraisers' evaluations and require conformance to building, plumbing, electrical and fire codes.

The council will take under consideration the suitability of site, the preservation and enhancement of natural terrain, effectiveness of land use, population density balance, adequacy of public facilities such as water, sewers, lighting, fire protection, streets, walks and highways. A balance of community living facilities will also be a part of the total picture, keeping in mind the need for recreational parks, schools, shopping, medical care, industry and commerce.

City planners are equally aware of the necessity for organized, structural development. Phoenix Planning Department's "Comprehensive Plan," mentioned previously, should serve as a guide to all aspects of future need, from landfill to retail floor space. The slurring tag of "urban sprawl" should not be applicable to Phoenix within the next decade or so, as pockets of hitherto skipped-over land are developed and maintained.

PREDICTION: To the degree that new inventions and discoveries in plastics and building materials take place, housing will change.

During the era of Messrs. Swilling, Duppa, Smith, et al., our founding fathers of the 1870's, building construction was mostly either adobe or wood. At present, every architectural style from Mediterranean, Colonial and Contemporary through ranch, storybook-gingerbread, split or tri-level and townhouse, is represented in the widest range of building materials currently available. But more is yet to come: modular housing is on the horizon, not only for Maricopa County's residents as dwelling units, but possibly as a new industry. Feasibility studies and market analyses are being conducted, with an eye to plant location in the area.

By the turn of the century, residential areas will have taken on a totally different look from that of today. Keeping the prime factor of an equitable population density ratio in mind, construction will be a blend of high-rise condominium, low-rise townhouse, cluster, open space and conventional dwellings, plus multiple apartment units of varying height and number. Land, as well as living, costs are still appreciably lower in Metropolitan Phoenix than much of the nation, but with tenantable land becoming a little less available and a little more costly each year, the low-level skyline of Phoenix is part of the past, not only along Central Avenue but in out-lying areas as well.

The next twenty to thirty years will see even more drastic change in our skyline, as the linear high-rise corridor on Central Avenue expands from Camelback Road south to the heart of downtown Phoenix and turns westward along the proposed Governmental Mall, where the city-county complex and the state capitol buildings will be joined by office buildings housing various departments of all levels of government now scattered in hodge podge fashion all over the city.

Transportation is another vital element of Maricopa County's development, directly related to all facets of our economy. Intracity and intercity public transportation is limited to bus service, and city planners do not predict a rail transit system for our metropolitan area, at least not prior to 1990. Five other U. S. cities now have such systems in operation, a sixth is under construction, and five others are thinking seriously of adapting this mode of commuter transport. These eleven urban areas are already mass-transportation oriented, while our residents are not; a deeply ingrained habit of having one's own car at his disposal would be difficult to overcome. Private transportation moves ninety-four per cent of Metropolitan Phoenix' households across town and around the state, from home to job locale, shopping center, restaurant, theater and away to nearby mountains and lakes for weekend or weeklong recreation. Thirty-six per cent of these households own two or more vehicles; another small segment has a leased or company car at their disposal.

Freeways, highways, city streets are all under constant extension, repair and usage re-evaluation. Road stresses are sustained not only by our higher-than-average incidence of passenger car and pickup owners, but by heavy utilization of commercial trucks, transporters and heavy equipment haulers. Phoenix is the hub of Southwest trucking activity, with 2200-plus manufacturers and wholesalers in the metro area serving more than a dozen states and Mexico. Phoenix Sky Harbor International traffic figures continue to soar upward, too. In 1965, 1,590,900 passengers enplaned and deplaned at Sky Harbor; the 1970 figure crested the 3-million mark. Data for air freight use and traffic of commercial, private and military planes is equally increasing. Strategically located satellite airports with shuttle service are in the foreseeable future, a necessary step toward avoiding both air and ground congestion.

On and on, almost to a point of dulling repetition, the story of Maricopa County 2000 A.D. unfolds. Every phase of human and community endeavor will grow and mature: new schools, stores, hospitals, industry and recreational facilities such as canalside parks will blossom forth. Employment has kept pace with population gains and no difference in past patterns is indicated. Cities will annex and enlarge, making now-distant city limits signs only a hairsbreadth apart. Brand new towns will spring forth fully planned from their developers' foreheads. Hand in hand, too, other indices of our economy will prosper: personal income, retail sales volume and our present three leading sources of income manufacturing, agriculture and tourism, presently in that order - should experience solid growth, though tourism seems soon to take over the number two spot among the county's income producers. To one who has lived here for twentyfive years and been eyewitness to the mushrooming growth, the popularity Phoenix has attained, with its ensuing development and cosmopolitanism, is viewed with mixed emotions: proud of its prosperity and fame, yet saddened as if by the loss of a dear old friend the wonderful, charming big-little city we first set foot in a quarter-century ago.

WIND RUNNING

We raced, the tumbleweed and I, beneath a blue and whipped-cream sky along the mesa, running free, breath-full of sun and wind and glee. What joy to sing and run and race across this wide and windblown place!

BASKET OF CLOUDS

The child lay sleeping in a basket of clouds, its innocent face showing faint touches of a smile. It was no longer a baby but a wild stallion, leaping through a field of clover, free, unbounded. It was no longer a stallion but a tree showering its shade upon the two sitting beneath it. It was not a tree but a mountain rolling in pride because it alone has not been conquered. Alas, it is not a tree but a pure cloud, evaporating into nothingness.

COCK OF THE HIGHWAY

The chaparral races past on the desert highway, Seemingly to outdistance the interloping motor-car. Ecologically, though, he is only seeking his prey, Foraging for snakes and such, and hoping from afar That his kind won't be displaced by man some day. Oh, scrawny road-runner, what changes have you seen As shiny ribbons of concrete invade your land! If in the Valley of the ancient Aztecs you'd been, When the eagle clutched the serpent in its hand, Emblazoned instead you'd be on yon tricolor's seam.

TO A DESERT NIGHT

Colors of dusk sweep down in tender shades to smooth the desert's seared and weary face. A vagrant breeze moves unobtrusively, touching the sage and cactus to muted music tones. Hushed sounds and moonglow relax the tired desert, and shimmering peace walks tall in soft-soled sandals.

GETTING OLD

Don't ever regret getting old, It is a privilege denied to too many. If you are the lucky one to have made it, Regrets, you shouldn't have any.

Yours Sincerely Thank You One and All

Just had to type my thanks profusely, for the December issue of your magazine. I looked at the back cover, first, examined it, even felt the soft theoretical synthetic fur on the little animals, looked it over with critical eyes, covered with glasses, studied it; all before I turned the book over for the bigger, more beautiful sketching work of that fabulous artist, R. Brownell McGrew, some more double-looks, following the shades and shadings, so much to absorb and enjoy, I did all this before I even opened the magical coloring of the ensuing pages, but, after looking it over, (altho alone) I gasped, and O-O-O'ed out loud, then the wintered Grand Canyon, oh!! What combinations of color Red White and Blue! Where else but America. I have traveled some, and have been able to get some scenes down on canvas, and I do know I'll never be able to see all there is to see, right here in America but thanks to you and your staff of the ARIZONA HIGHWAYS, I have been floating and sailing (without aid of any kind of motorization) only on the wings of imagination. But let me say, I've really been there and on looking at the double page spread - I got up and compared and found on my wall, Canyon de Chelly, taken from a different angle - but this one has such rare lighting - almost as if the Angels in the sky had turned on floodlights. Thanks again, what an advance Christmas gift!!! Happy holidays to you and to all the Staff of ARIZONA HIGHWAYS.

I have just received the Christmas issue of ARIZONA HIGHWAYS. I wish to commend you for this inspiring issue. The photographs are breathtaking. I particularly appreciate the reproductions of paintings by the late George Phippin. I have noted what appears to be a typographical error. On page 22 there is the statement, "on a Christmas Eve one thousand and seventy years ago." I believe this should read, "one thousand, nine hundred and seventy years ago."

Your December issue of ARIZONA HIGHWAYS is without a doubt one of the most beautiful examples of American literary art which I have ever seen. Surely, wherever such things are considered, this issue must win a prize for layout, design, composition, text, artwork everything.

We (my wife and I) are grateful to have been fortunate enough to have received a copy.

The beautiful December Highways was just today left by the postman, and in one hour I have twice feasted my eyes on its beauty, and am now starting in to read it from cover to cover. AND. after fifty years at the book-and-job end of the printing craft, most of it on book and magazine work, maybe I'm a bit too stodgy; too "picky" in looking for the "nitty-gritties," but, in line three, page 22, didn't you intend to say "one thousand nine hundred and seventy years ago?" As it reads, we are still in the year 1070! Sorry, but old printers never go blind they just enjoy their retirement by checking on the fellow who still has to work! Maybe I'll be the only stupid printer that will notice the time gap, but on the whole, 1970's Christmas issue is one of the most colorful you have ever put out, and for me, ARIZONA HIGHWAYS is the most beautiful magazine in America! I love Arizona; get over there whenever I can! Page 47 is a piece of photography that is almost three-dimensional, and when the last reader has taken a final look, and the magazine is ready for the file, I'm going to take that page out and frame it! It makes me homesick for the mountains every time I see it! My wife and I thoroughly enjoyed your November spread on Pinal County, especially the marvelous color photographs. We consider ourselves very fortunate in that we own several acres of land in Apache Junction at the foot of Superstition Mountain. Your magazine has reminded me of how much I miss the people and the places I visited some 13 years ago.

FROM A FRIEND IN CONNECTICUT

OPPOSITE PAGE

"ONLY TWENTY MINUTES FROM TOWN" - EARL PETROFF. It's gratifying to know that there are retreats where a man can get away from it all without having to take a vacation. Throughout Maricopa County there are hundreds of little traveled roads which are still safe from the subdivider's bulldozer. This one is in the Pinnacle Peak area north and east of Scottsdale. The flowers are mostly lupine, brittle bush and golden poppies. Camera: Graphic II View, 12 inch element of triple convertible lens was used. Ektachrome E3 exposed 1/25th second at f27.

BACK COVER BY MARKOW PHOTOGRAPHERS

Like the saguaros on the front cover, Phoenix is rising tall and straight. High rise buildings are being planned and built so fast that the skyline changes every month. The Financial Square complex is one of the bold new silhouettes with its burnished metal columns reflecting the setting sun. Calumet View camera, Schneider Kreuznach Super Angulon 65mm lens. Ektachrome exposed 30 seconds at f16.